"Pax-IKNisiana: Will the Borneo Region (Sabah, Sarawak, and Brunei) be the 'Canada' or 'Mexico'?"

In history, the Nusantara region and the Malay Archipelago have not been devoid of becoming significant forces. Look at Srivijaya and Majapahit. Historical records tell us that both of these empires possessed substantial wealth and military power. Putin said, Indonesia is an emerging superpower.

The relocation of the capital city can also rebalance internal development. Take Nigeria, for example, which has three main regions dominated by the Yoruba, Hausa-Fulani, and Igbo ethnic groups. Moving the capital city from Lagos (in the Yoruba region) to Abuja (in the center of the three regions) aims to ensure that wealth distribution isn't overly centered on one ethnic group. Brazil's move of the capital city from Rio to Brasília also aimed to bridge the development gap between coastal and inland areas. Both of these aspects are present in Indonesia's capital city relocation. 

From a security standpoint, Jakarta is under threat, but not from neighboring countries. The neighboring countries are all on good terms. The threat comes from the rising sea level. The increasing sea level is a result of global warming phenomena, where extreme temperatures cause ice and glaciers in the northern and southern poles to melt. As a consequence, North Jakarta has sunk by 2.5 meters over the past 10 years. If this continues, North Jakarta is projected to be submerged by 2050. 

Regarding internal development, Jakarta is facing two main issues. The first problem is population density. If you divide Jakarta's population (10 million) by its area (661.5 km²), you get a population density of about 15,000 people per square kilometer. The second problem is the economic imbalance between provinces. Due to Jakarta being located on the island of Java, development is mostly centered around Java (Java-centric). 

Everyone wants to migrate to Java, resulting in Java, which comprises only 7% of Indonesia's total land area, accommodating 58% of Indonesia's population. This 58% also contributes to 58% of Indonesia's GDP. Seven out of the ten most populous cities in Indonesia are in Java (Jakarta, Surabaya, Bandung, Bekasi, Depok, Semarang, Tangerang). In fact, four of them are part of "Jabodetabek" (Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, Bekasi) or "Greater Jakarta". 

Comparatively, Kalimantan is the most suitable to alleviate the population density issue. Kalimantan's population density is 25 people per square kilometer (14 million people ÷ 544,150 km²), much lower than Sumatra (107 people) and Sulawesi (96 people). The islands in Nusa Tenggara and Maluku are on the periphery and are not suitable to be the capital city. Kalimantan's advantage, not found in other islands, is its location outside earthquake and volcanic zones. This makes it relatively disaster-free and suitable for long-term capital city status, as Jokowi mentioned, the "eternal" capital city of Indonesia. 

Kalimantan's overall demographic is quite balanced (26% Banjar, 22% Dayak, 18% Javanese, 12% Malay, 7% Bugis), making it a potential model for Indonesia's new national identity. If Kalimantan is so suitable, why wasn't the move made earlier? In fact, Sukarno did contemplate a move. Sukarno himself wasn't fond of Jakarta, viewing it as a legacy of Dutch colonization known as the administrative center of Dutch East Indies from 1619 to 1942, called Batavia. Sukarno wanted a new capital city free from Dutch influence, and he saw Palangkaraya in Central Kalimantan as a potential candidate. Sukarno inaugurated Palangkaraya as the capital of Central Kalimantan province in 1957.

However, due to various upheavals between 1957-1958, Sukarno had to postpone the plan. Now, the idea of establishing the capital city in Kalimantan is being realized by Jokowi, who has revitalized Sukarno's rhetoric and narrative. Why did Sukarno choose Kalimantan? Beyond the aforementioned reasons, it might be connected to the vision of "Indonesia Raya" or "Nusantara," modeled after the Majapahit kingdom (1293-1527). Symbols of the Republic of Indonesia are all tied to Majapahit, from the red and white flag to the motto "Bhinneka Tunggal Ika" (Unity in Diversity). 

And Kalimantan, known as Nusa Tanjung Negara during the Majapahit era, was indeed situated right in the heart of the Majapahit realm of power. If we look at Indonesia's current geographical layout, it's slightly eastward towards the Makassar Strait. This doesn't imply that Jokowi still holds the vision of Indonesia Raya, but the aspiration to become a regional power has never disappeared from the Indonesian people's hearts, and Majapahit serves as an ideal or inspiration for that aspiration. 

This relocation of Indonesia's capital city not only aims at safety and socioeconomics but also signifies the transformation of Indonesia's identity towards a "potential superpower." 

Some among us might underestimate Indonesia now, but we must remember that Indonesia's economy is already in the top 16 globally and among the top 5 in Asia, following China, Japan, India, and Korea. Nikkei and PwC predict that by 2050, Indonesia will be the fourth-largest economy in the world after China, the US, and India, surpassing Japan. 

Sabah, Sarawak, and even Brunei should be optimistic about potentially benefiting from Kalimantan's development overflow, but they might also be concerned about their economies potentially getting absorbed by Indonesia's economy. Indonesia's current issue lies primarily in infrastructure, which Jokowi is actively addressing. Once all the infrastructure is in place, Indonesia can unleash its potential. Referring to the rise of the US as a North American superpower, infrastructure was key. With this, Indonesia is poised to become a strong Global Economic Power after China, the United States, Japan, and India. The idea of Indonesia surpassing the European Union could become reality. 

Hence, the successor to President Jokowi must continue his legacy, aiming to shape a nation with a grand spirit, ready to become a major global power.

Source :

1. Ayman Rashdan Wong. "The Patriot : 2019."

2. Ricard Javad Heydarian. "The national news : 2022."