The Art of Extraction: Understanding Trump’s Strategy Amid Global Trade Tensions

Recently, global stock markets have experienced prolonged turmoil following Donald Trump’s proposal to impose new tariffs on almost every country. Analysts have warned that such measures could trigger a global economic recession.

It is not only the markets that have reacted—billionaires such as Bill Ackman and Elon Musk have also voiced concern. Ackman openly criticized Trump on social media, while Musk shared a video by Milton Friedman emphasizing the importance of free trade. Although Musk did not mention Trump directly, his message was unmistakable.

This raises a crucial question: what exactly is Trump trying to achieve?

As a political realist, I believe that every political action, no matter how absurd or controversial it may appear, is driven by a rationale. To understand Trump’s decisions, we must examine two key aspects of his worldview: anti-globalism and transactionalism.

Trump’s anti-globalist rhetoric is not merely an emotional outburst against “Made in China.” Rather, it represents an effort—whether genuine or strategic—to compel companies to return to American soil. However, in the absence of cheap labor, "Made in America" products are unlikely to remain globally competitive.

More profoundly, Trump’s actions reflect what I term the art of extraction—a strategy distinct from the much-publicized Art of the Deal. His approach is straightforward: apply extreme pressure, create confusion, and force the other party to concede—then declare a major victory, even if the actual gains are modest.

This strategy may yield results in the business world, but in international diplomacy, it is destabilizing.

Trump perceives the world as a vast bargaining table, where nations must "pay" to remain within the United States’ sphere of influence. Europe, which once regarded the U.S. as a democratic ally, now feels treated like a liability. The post-World War II social contract between the U.S. and its allies is beginning to unravel.

Ironically, Trump’s aggressive strategy, ostensibly aimed at weakening China, has instead created opportunities for China to emerge as the defender of the global trade order.

American hegemony has long depended not only on economic and military power but also on its credibility as a stable and reliable global leader. When that credibility is damaged, the world begins to seek alternatives. And despite its shortcomings, China is increasingly viewed as a viable option.

What we are witnessing is not merely a tariff war—it is a geopolitical transformation that may redefine the global order established since 1945. Whether we agree or not, the era of uncontested American dominance is drawing to a close—and Trump’s "art of extraction" is accelerating its demise.