Today Ukraine, Tomorrow...?

If there is one lesson the Ukraine war has taught the world, it is the true nature of realpolitik—devoid of emotion, sentiment, or ideology, driven solely by interests.

Volodymyr Zelensky, once celebrated as a hero of democracy by the United States and its allies, is now confronted with a harsh reality: there is no such thing as unconditional support. Today, Donald Trump seeks to overturn Joe Biden’s policy of full backing for Ukraine. Tomorrow, Taiwan may face the same uncertainty.

Trump is not "pro-Russia" in the literal sense, but he aims to end the war in a way that serves American interests. In this geopolitical game, Ukraine is merely a bargaining chip.

Trump is pressuring Zelensky to negotiate peace with Russia, but at a cost: Ukraine must surrender its valuable mineral resources—such as rare earth elements—to the United States.

Zelensky may have no choice but to comply, yet even after agreeing, Trump refuses to provide security assurances for Ukraine. In other words, Ukraine is now left to bear the consequences of geopolitical decisions that were largely beyond its control.

For those who understand power dynamics, this is not just a case of betrayal. It is a brutal reminder that small nations are often mere pawns in the grand strategy of major powers.

For decades, U.S. credibility has rested on its commitments to its allies—commitments that have helped maintain balance in the international system. But as the United States retreats from its responsibilities, the global order begins to shift.

In Taiwan, concerns are mounting. If Ukraine can be "abandoned," why not Taiwan? Trump is undoubtedly anti-China, but his primary focus is economic, not geopolitical. There is no guarantee that he will not adopt the same approach toward Taiwan if it serves American interests.

We are witnessing a transition toward a multipolar world—one where no single dominant power acts as a stabilizer. Hegemonic stability theory posits that global stability is only possible when a singular, powerful state enforces order and ensures adherence to international norms.

The United States is far from a perfect hegemon. It has been oppressive, manipulative, and self-serving. Yet, for all its flaws, it has functioned as a stabilizing force in the international system. If the U.S. withdraws from this role, the world may experience a surge in conflicts beyond anyone’s control.

Some may argue that the U.S. remains the most powerful nation. However, history suggests that power alone is insufficient. Before World War II, the United States already possessed the world’s largest economy and strongest navy, yet its isolationist policies created a vacuum that allowed aggressive powers like Germany to act unchecked.

Today, it is Ukraine. Tomorrow? Perhaps Taiwan. Perhaps somewhere else.

We have only four years to observe how Trump reshapes the world. And if this trajectory continues, the global order may be heading toward an era of instability far greater than we ever anticipated.